Houston, 1983: buying at the top of an oil boom
This regret took 15 years to stop being one.
1983→1988, metro index−22%Nominal break-even year1998A 1983 house today3.8×
Houston in 1983 had oil money, cranes on the skyline, and absolute certainty. Then crude collapsed, and the metro index gave back about 22% by 1988. A 1983 buyer did not see their nominal price again until 1998: 15 years of mortgage payments on a house worth less than they paid.
Held all the way to today, the purchase stands at 3.8×, which sounds fine until you price 15 years of waiting, in nominal terms, before the recovery even started counting.
The lesson is that entry year matters more than metro. The rankings show the same city delivering triumph and purgatory a few years apart.
House figures are estimates for the whole metro market, from the FHFA index. Not financial advice.