Miami, 2006: the seller who was right, for five years
A regret story in which selling was the right call, for a while.
2006→2011, metro index−44%A 2006 house today2.1×The lessontiming cuts both ways
Whoever sold a Miami condo in 2006 spent the next five years being called a genius, because the call was right: by 2011 the metro index had fallen about 44% from its 2006 average. Sometimes not owning wins, and we print it.
A purchase at 2006 prices, held straight through the crash, is at 2.1× today. The seller was right for five years; the buyer who never looked at Zillow again was right for twenty.
Both people exist in every metro, and what usually separates them is whether they needed to move in 2011.
House figures are estimates for the whole metro market, from the FHFA index. Not financial advice.